The Trump administration has started detaining some European travelers—and things could get dire for U.S. tourism

Over the past several weeks, there have been a series of reports about foreign tourists to the U.S. being detained, held, and even deported while trying to cross the border on a trip. Experts believe that increased uncertainty about the safety and stability of travel to the U.S. could have a detrimental effect on the nation’s tourism economy.

Tourism Economics is a global travel data company that calculates travel forecasts based on the economic and demographic outlook for certain regions. The company initially predicted that foreign travel to the U.S. would increase by 8.8% in 2025—but, last month, that shifted to a 5.1% decrease in response to “polarizing Trump administration policies and rhetoric,” according to a statement shared with The Washington Post. The new report also predicts that spending by foreign tourists could decrease by 11%, leading to a total economic loss of $18.8 billion.

“The issue for holiday travelers is that they have a choice of when and where to travel,” Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, wrote in an email to Fast Company. “This ultimate discretion means that antipathy towards a country’s leadership can have appreciable effects. This is on top of the negative economic consequences of tariffs.”

According to Neri Karra Sillaman, an entrepreneur expert at Oxford University and author of the upcoming book Pioneers: 8 Principles of Business Longevity from Immigrant Entrepreneurs, foreign travelers’ fears of higher visa scrutiny and extended processing times under the Trump administration could be a major deterrent—ultimately leading to a decline across the tourism and hospitality industries.

Recent reports of detained tourists spark concern

On the campaign trail, President Trump promised to launch mass deportations of immigrants. And as he ramps up the rate of deportations, multiple travelers from outside the U.S. have reported being detained by ICE while trying to enter the country, despite possessing some form of visa.

Early this month, CNN reported that German tattoo artist Jessica Brösche was vacationing in Mexico when she decided to travel to the U.S. with a friend. Instead, she was detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) at the San Ysidro port of entry and held in detention for over a month.

Brösche entered the U.S. via the Visa Waiver Program agreement that the U.S. has with Germany and 40 other countries. According to a statement from ICE to CNN, Brösche was detained due “to the violation of the terms and conditions of her admission.” Her friends contest that this was a misunderstanding of Brösche’s intentions to provide free tattoos for her friends in the states, which ICE took to mean that she intended to work in the country without a work visa.

Other reports of detained foreign travelers in the last few weeks have included a German hiker who was allegedly detained and deported despite possessing a B2 travel visa; a Canadian entrepreneur who claims she was arrested by ICE while trying to obtain a new visa; and a British tourist on a backpacking trip who says she was held in an ICE detention center for having a travel visa rather than a working visa.

An increasingly bleak outlook for the tourism economy

Sillaman says these occurrences could point to increased visa scrutiny more broadly under the Trump administration, leading travelers to view entering the U.S. as “too difficult or unpredictable.” 

“Even if you get a visa, you have the risk of being detained or to be denied,” Sillaman says. She adds that, even as someone with a valid U.S. visa who’s married to an American, she’s concerned about entering the country under the current conditions. “I’m telling you my perspective as someone who is not a citizen: I’ve never broken the law, I’m an academic, I have a good job, yet when I enter the U.S., especially at this time, I do have a little bit of hesitation. This is coming from someone who shouldn’t have any reason to fear.”

The latest data released by the government reflects the fact that overseas visitors are increasingly hesitant to visit the U.S. Compared to last February, ​​foreign travelers were down 2.4% total, with sharp declines in visitors from Africa, Asia, and Central America. In response to Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada, Canadians have seemingly begun boycotting travel to the U.S., with one report noting that “return trips” to Canada had dropped by 23% last month (implying that those Canadians were no longer visiting the U.S. at all). The U.S. Travel Association predicted that just a 10% annual dip in Canadian tourism could result in a $2.1 billion loss and jeopardize 14,000 American jobs.

Sacks noted that this travel slump isn’t entirely new: During Trump’s first administration, policies like his 2019 travel ban on several majority-Muslim countries caused travel to decline sharply after three years of growth.

“As of 2024, visits to the U.S. have still not recovered to 2019 levels,” Sacks says. “Overseas travel was down 13%, Canada was down 2.4%, and Mexico was down 7%. So the effects of antipathy towards the U.S. will rewind some of the progress that has been made toward full recovery.”

Sillaman argues that anti-American sentiment could have ripple effects across a number of industries. For businesses looking to host conferences and events with international employees, logistics could become more strained, and some foreign employees may choose not to attend. Additionally, she adds, the hospitality industry is one of the largest employers of immigrant workers in the U.S. If those workers find it more difficult to attain and use H-2B visas, this significant driver of the tourism economy could face significant workforce issues.

“A lot of the people who work in this particular industry are there on work visas, and this creates a potential issue particularly in places like Miami and New York that are going to bear the brunt of this impact—we’re more likely to see higher prices and lower service levels,” Sillaman says. “This happened during the pandemic, and my fear is that it can become much more difficult in the future.”

While Trump has yet to enact an official travel ban in his second term (though experts warn that a new one could be imminent), Sillaman believes that the current administration’s attitude toward immigrants and foreign travelers has only become more harsh.

“While there is not a travel ban, it is on another level,” Sillaman says. “It’s chilling. I think it’s a lot more planned, a lot more systematic—I think Trump is also much more confident this time around. He keeps talking about having a mandate. There is a lot more brazenness.”